比爾·蓋茨的預言會成真，不久的將來遠程教育將會比實體教育更重要。

 比爾·蓋茨終于趕上趟了。這位世界第二富有的人最近預言說，在線學習將降低實體高校的重要性。在美國一場數(shù)字精英會議上，蓋茨表示“五年內(nèi)，人們就可以免費在網(wǎng)上找到全世界最棒的課程講座。這比就讀任何一所高校都要好”。幾周后，在另一場精英會議上，蓋茨對“可漢學院”（kahn academy）不吝溢美之詞（可漢學院是非營利性的網(wǎng)絡數(shù)學和科學輔導機構）。據(jù)說，蓋茨驚呼“可漢教授用這么少的資源做了這么多的貢獻，太令人驚訝了（可漢教授確實做到了這一點）�！�

我很贊同蓋茨先生新發(fā)現(xiàn)的這一變化，并且同意他的觀點——對于世界上絕大多數(shù)學生來說，遠程教育很快將成為比實體學校更為強大的教育媒介。但是，為什么這么長時間了，我們還沒有看到這一轉(zhuǎn)變呢？

早在1997年，我所在的公司就推出了網(wǎng)絡學習業(yè)務。不夸張地說，我覺得自己高估了學習行為和市場行為變化的速度。不過，犯這種錯誤的不止我一個。10年前，麻省理工學院決定推出免費的在線視頻講座，任何人都能在網(wǎng)上學習麻省理工學院的所有課程�！哆B線雜志》（wired magazine）的一篇文章表示，麻省理工學院掀起的“開放式課程”（opencourseware）運動，成為了終結實體教育的開端�！哆B線雜志》引用了一個實例，一位欣喜若狂的越南天才利用“開放式課程”，直接跟隨世界另一端的其他天才們學習物理。

但是現(xiàn)在，有多少學生通過麻省理工學院的在線視頻學會了微分方程和粒子物理學呢？我想，并不多。為什么？在我所屬行業(yè)中，大部分人都提出了一個簡單的答案，那就是基礎設施的匱乏。帶寬在阻止我們向前發(fā)展。現(xiàn)在，一個越南學生在當?shù)鼐W(wǎng)絡咖啡廳上網(wǎng)的費用是每小時0.5美元，而且其中并不包含消費可口的越南咖啡的費用。對于日平均工資只有2美元的越南人來說，這實在是太不劃算了。

基礎設施的缺乏僅僅是問題的一部分。我對此有自己的一套見解。我認為，真正的問題在于，教育者所提供的內(nèi)容和體驗的質(zhì)量。登陸麻省理工學院的網(wǎng)站http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/，然后用realplayer觀看他們的在線課程視頻。當然，觀看這些視頻的都是非常聰明的人，但這和玩魔獸世界不一樣。只有那些最專注的學生，才會費力學完這些在線視頻，而他們通常也本來就是自己班上最好的學生。

教育產(chǎn)業(yè)僅次于醫(yī)療保健產(chǎn)業(yè)，是全球第二大產(chǎn)業(yè)。可我們?yōu)槭裁磿�被這一產(chǎn)業(yè)中那些富有進取心和魅力的教授放在youtube上的簡單視頻所震撼？教育界的《阿凡達》在哪兒？想想看，好萊塢每年全球的故事片市場值300億美元，可是，單單中國一個國家，在教育上的投資就有4,000億美元，占其gdp的3%到4%。全球每年的教育市場是萬億級的，是好萊塢電影業(yè)的幾百倍�？墒悄兀�迄今為止，全球最昂貴的數(shù)字教學系統(tǒng)的建造費用還不到1,000萬美元（我所在的公司——英孚教育集團，已經(jīng)在語言學習系統(tǒng)上投資了5,000萬美元，是業(yè)內(nèi)投資最多的了）。

比爾·蓋茨的預言確實會成真。在不久的將來，遠程教育將會比實體教育更重要。不過，只有當我們創(chuàng)造出比實體教育更能吸引并激勵人的重磅級教育內(nèi)容和體驗時，這一預言才會實現(xiàn)。我們有這個能力，也有這個基礎設施——我們?nèi)鄙俚氖切坌�。誰能將在線教育推到一個新高度？誰能向蓋茨先生證明，網(wǎng)絡學習對于全球?qū)W生來說是無比強大的工具？我們將拭目以待。

以下為英文原文：

 bill gates has finally caught on. the world’s 2^nd richest man recently predicted that online learning will make “place-based” colleges “l(fā)ess crucial.” speaking at a conference for the digital elite in the us he said that “five years from now on the web for free you'll be able to find the best lectures in the world. it will be better than any single university". a few weeks later, speaking at yet another conference for a different set of elite he showered praise on the not-for-profit online math and science tutoring operation “ kahn academy ”. gates was said to have exclaimed that it was “amazing how much [professor kahn] has done with very little in the way of resources.” (and indeed he has).

 i applaud mr. gates for his newfound conversion and agree that distance education will soon be a more powerful medium than place-based education for the vast majority of students in the world. but what’s taking us so long?

 having launched our e-learning business in 1997 i think it’s fair to say that i overestimated the pace of change in learner behavior and market behavior. but i was not alone. ten years ago mit decided to post videos of all university lectures and the course plan for every course online, for free, for all of humanity. an article in wired magazine implied that this “opencourseware” movement was (also) the beginning of the end for “place-based” education, quoting an enraptured vietnamese genius on the virtues of learning physics straight from other geniuses on the other side of the world.

but today, how many students have you met who mastered differential equations and particle physics from an mit online video? not many, i imagine. why? the simple answer offered by most people in our industry is lack of infrastructure. bandwidth is holding us back- right now, it costs a vietnamese student  $0.50 an hour to surf the web at his local web café (not including his tasty vietnamese coffee). that adds up for people in countries where the average wage earner makes $2 per day.

 infrastructure is part of the problem. but i have a different theory. i think the real problem is simply in the quality of the content and experience provided by educators. go to mit’s web site at http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ and use realplayer to watch some of their courses online. surely these are some very smart people, but it’s not exactly like playing world of warcraft. only the world’s most dedicated students, often those who are already the best in their classes, will dedicate themselves to plowing through these online videos.

 why, in the 2^nd largest industry in the world (education being 2^nd only to health care), are we so impressed by simple youtube clips posted by enterprising and engaging professors? where is theavatar of education? think about this -- the market for hollywood feature films per year is worth something like 30 billion usd a year worldwide. but china alone spends more than 400 billion usd on education, 3-4% of gdp. education in the world is a trillion dollar a year market, 100s of times bigger than hollywood movies, yet at the same time the most expensive digital learning systems ever built cost well under 100 million dollars to build. (my company, ef, has spent 50 million usd to date on our language learning system, the most in our industry).

 bill gates’ prediction is going to happen ╟ “place-based”education will be less important than distance-education in the near future. but this will happen only once we create “blockbuster”-level educational content, experiences that engage and excite more than has ever been possible in the real world. we have the ability and the infrastructure ╟ what the world lacks is the ambition. now we need to see who among us can take it to the next level and really show mr. gates what a powerful tool online learning can be for students of the world.

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